Groningen

2 - 1

NEC Nijmegen

Groningen hosted NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie, finishing 2-1. Goals: M. Rente (45'), T. Land (51'), D. Nejasmic (76'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 7 waves, achieving 14% precision with a net result of $-5125.50 (ROI: -76.7%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.84 to 1.83; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting NEC Nijmegen +0.25. Average expected value was 10.8%, with a combined stake of $253. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-253.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting NEC Nijmegen 0. Average expected value was 18.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on NEC Nijmegen 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.8% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 15.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting NEC Nijmegen 0 and NEC Nijmegen and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 13.2%, with a combined stake of $2730. The sharpest edge was on NEC Nijmegen 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.4% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 19.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-2730.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 7.4%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 45.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 51.6% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 6.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting NEC Nijmegen -0.5 and Groningen. Average expected value was 20.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on NEC Nijmegen -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.1% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 32.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-192.50. ### Wave 7 — Minute 85' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Groningen leading 2-1 at 85'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 25.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.6% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 21.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00.

- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap NEC Nijmegen -0.5: AI saw 75.1% vs market's 42.6% (32.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 85'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 66.7% (21.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap NEC Nijmegen 0: AI saw 72.4% vs market's 53.3% (19.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap NEC Nijmegen 0: AI saw 72.0% vs market's 53.3% (18.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap NEC Nijmegen 0: AI saw 71.8% vs market's 56.3% (15.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-253.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-2110.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/6L, $-2562.50 (ROI: -62.2%)

Possession was 50–50 in Groningen's deficit. Groningen had 10 shots (7 on target) versus NEC Nijmegen's 8 (3 on target). Corners: 5-5.