Groningen

2 - 3

Excelsior

Groningen hosted Excelsior in the Eredivisie, finishing 2-3. Goals: T. de Jonge (3'), C. Widell (40'), Y. Taha (47'), D. Sanches Fernandes (66'), G. de Regt (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$1504.50 (ROI: +150.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.95; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.97 to 2.05.

### Wave 1 — Minute 84' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2, 84'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Excelsior 0. Average expected value was 42.9%, with a combined stake of $1003. The sharpest edge was on Excelsior 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.6% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 40.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1504.50.

- **Minute 84'** — Asian Handicap Excelsior 0: AI saw 80.6% vs market's 40.0% (40.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 84'** — Asian Handicap Excelsior 0: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 40.0% (40.1pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$754.50 (ROI: +150.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$750.00 (ROI: +150.0%)

Possession was 55%–45% in Groningen's favor. Groningen had 8 shots (4 on target) versus Excelsior's 14 (6 on target). Expected goals: Groningen 0.71 — Excelsior 1.86. Corners: 4-7.