GO Ahead Eagles1 - 4PSV Eindhoven
GO Ahead EaglesWhy did AI enter 3 times at 15', 26', 56' — and still finish $-6604?
Match Overview
GO Ahead Eagles hosted PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie, finishing 1-4. Goals: I. Perisic (19'), M. Suray (26' pen), R. Pepi (45'), I. Perisic (70'), P. Wanner (82'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 3 waves, achieving 14% precision with a net result of $-6604.00 (ROI: -78.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 1 to 0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 3.75 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 1.88; the home moneyline shortened from 4.38 to 4.13.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting GO Ahead Eagles +0.5. Average expected value was 13.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on GO Ahead Eagles +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.2% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 10.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** PSV Eindhoven leading 0-1 at 26'. M. Suray scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.5 and GO Ahead Eagles +1.5 and PSV Eindhoven and GO Ahead Eagles +0.5 and Under 4.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 22.4%, with a combined stake of $7737. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 82.2% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 34.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 2 of 12 trades won, netting $-5904.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 56' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** PSV Eindhoven leading 1-2 at 56'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting GO Ahead Eagles +1. Average expected value was 37.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on GO Ahead Eagles +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.7% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 35.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap GO Ahead Eagles +1: AI saw 79.7% vs market's 44.4% (35.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 82.2% vs market's 47.6% (34.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 47.6% (34.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap GO Ahead Eagles +1.5: AI saw 91.8% vs market's 58.8% (33.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap GO Ahead Eagles +1.5: AI saw 91.6% vs market's 58.8% (32.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/5L, $-2960.50 (ROI: -76.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/6L, $-3443.50 (ROI: -79.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 39–61 in GO Ahead Eagles's deficit. GO Ahead Eagles had 10 shots (4 on target) versus PSV Eindhoven's 23 (9 on target). Corners: 7-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -78.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -78.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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