Fortuna Sittard

3 - 2

PEC Zwolle

Fortuna Sittard hosted PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie, finishing 3-2. Goals: L. Duijvestijn (21'), Y. Oukili (50'), K. Sierhuis (65'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 4 waves, achieving 64% precision with a net result of +$4703.47 (ROI: +70.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.94 to 2.15.

### Wave 1 — Minute 16' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 16'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting PEC Zwolle 0. Average expected value was 23.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on PEC Zwolle 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 21.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fortuna Sittard leading 1-0 at 25'. L. Duijvestijn scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting PEC Zwolle -1. Average expected value was 44.5%, with a combined stake of $2672. The sharpest edge was on PEC Zwolle -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 42.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$3340.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fortuna Sittard leading 1-0 at 28'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting PEC Zwolle 0 and Fortuna Sittard and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 23.9%, with a combined stake of $3277. The sharpest edge was on PEC Zwolle 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.5% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 31.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$2063.47. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fortuna Sittard leading 1-0 at 44'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 9.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.2% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 5.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap PEC Zwolle -1: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 44.4% (42.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap PEC Zwolle -1: AI saw 86.4% vs market's 44.4% (42.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap PEC Zwolle -1: AI saw 86.2% vs market's 44.4% (41.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap PEC Zwolle 0: AI saw 68.5% vs market's 37.4% (31.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap PEC Zwolle 0: AI saw 68.6% vs market's 37.4% (31.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$2168.10 (ROI: +85.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$2129.12 (ROI: +83.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$606.25 (ROI: +43.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 46–54 in Fortuna Sittard's deficit. Fortuna Sittard had 12 shots (4 on target) versus PEC Zwolle's 8 (3 on target). Corners: 6-5.