Feyenoord

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AZ Alkmaar

Feyenoord hosted AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie, finishing 1-1. Goals: T. Parrott (1'), A. Hadj Moussa (57'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 7 waves, achieving 71% precision with a net result of +$3942.05 (ROI: +46.5%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.25. Average expected value was 24.0%, with a combined stake of $600. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 56.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$600.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AZ Alkmaar leading 0-1 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Feyenoord +0.5. Average expected value was 35.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Feyenoord +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.9% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 32.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$160.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AZ Alkmaar leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Feyenoord +0.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 21.9%, with a combined stake of $3278. The sharpest edge was on Feyenoord +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.7% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 29.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2378.55. ### Wave 4 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AZ Alkmaar leading 0-1 at 41'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 12.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 50.6% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 10.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AZ Alkmaar leading 0-1 at 48'. Feyenoord made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting AZ Alkmaar. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AZ Alkmaar leading 0-1 at 53'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 4.5 and AZ Alkmaar 0. Average expected value was 27.6%, with a combined stake of $1400. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 96.3% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 34.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$53.50. ### Wave 7 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AZ Alkmaar leading 0-1 at 57'. A. Hadj Moussa scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting AZ Alkmaar 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 15.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on AZ Alkmaar 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.9% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 18.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$250.00.

- **Minute 53'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 96.3% vs market's 61.9% (34.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Feyenoord +0.5: AI saw 87.9% vs market's 55.6% (32.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Feyenoord +0.5: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 58.0% (29.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Feyenoord +0.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 58.0% (29.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap AZ Alkmaar 0: AI saw 55.9% vs market's 37.4% (18.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1690.73 (ROI: +46.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1491.32 (ROI: +36.9%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$600.00 (ROI: +100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$160.00 (ROI: +80.0%)

Possession was 40–60 in Feyenoord's deficit. Feyenoord had 10 shots (5 on target) versus AZ Alkmaar's 13 (3 on target). Corners: 7-3.