FC Volendam1 - 2Telstar
FC VolendamWhy did AI enter 4 times at 35', 44', 48', 87' — and still finish +$379?
Match Overview
FC Volendam hosted Telstar in the Eredivisie, finishing 1-2. Goals: A. Descotte (2'), D. Bakker (44'), R. Koeman (89' pen). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 4 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$378.83 (ROI: +40.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 1.95; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.5 to 2.61.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC Volendam leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Telstar -0.5. Average expected value was 49.0%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Telstar -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.6% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 46.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$14.25. ### Wave 2 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC Volendam leading 1-0 at 44'. D. Bakker scored moments ago. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Telstar +0.5 and Draw and Telstar. Average expected value was 13.9%, with a combined stake of $102. The sharpest edge was on Telstar (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 42.3% probability versus the market's implied 20.0% — a 22.3 percentage point gap at odds of 5. **Result:** 5 of 8 trades won, netting +$132.96. ### Wave 3 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after D. Bakker's equalizer at 44'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Telstar -1 and Telstar +0.5 and Over 2.5 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 30.5%, with a combined stake of $328. The sharpest edge was on Telstar -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.2% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 38.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 6 of 10 trades won, netting $-268.38. ### Wave 4 — Minute 87' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 87'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 13.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Telstar -0.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 41.2% (46.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Telstar -0.5: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 41.2% (46.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Telstar -1: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 58.8% (38.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Telstar -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 58.8% (38.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Moneyline Telstar: AI saw 42.3% vs market's 20.0% (22.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$507.00 (ROI: +100.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 7W/4L, $-13.11 (ROI: -5.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, $-115.07 (ROI: -65.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51–49 in FC Volendam's favor. FC Volendam had 15 shots (8 on target) versus Telstar's 7 (2 on target). Expected goals: FC Volendam 0.95 — Telstar 1.4. Corners: 7-0.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +40.3% ROI. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$507.00.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +40.3% ROI on 21 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$507.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.