Excelsior5 - 0Utrecht
ExcelsiorWhy did AI enter 3 times at 15', 25', 28' — and still finish $-3207?
Match Overview
Excelsior hosted Utrecht in the Eredivisie, finishing 5-0. Goals: N. Naujoks (11'), D. Sanches Fernandes (36'), D. Sanches Fernandes (55'), I. Yegoian (69'), I. Yegoian (72'), L. Hartjes (90'). Utrecht received a red card (M. Didden, 31'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 3 waves, achieving 22% precision with a net result of $-3207.00 (ROI: -65.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 2.02; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.11 to 3.37.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Excelsior leading 1-0 at 15'. N. Naujoks scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Utrecht -0.5. Average expected value was 29.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Utrecht -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 26.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Excelsior leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Excelsior and Utrecht -0.5. Average expected value was 17.7%, with a combined stake of $2981. The sharpest edge was on Utrecht -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 29.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** 1 of 5 trades won, netting $-2117.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Excelsior leading 1-0 at 28'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Excelsior and Under 3.5 and Utrecht -0.5. Average expected value was 15.8%, with a combined stake of $1753. The sharpest edge was on Utrecht -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.9% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 30.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-889.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Utrecht -0.5: AI saw 77.9% vs market's 47.6% (30.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Utrecht -0.5: AI saw 77.6% vs market's 48.2% (29.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Utrecht -0.5: AI saw 76.9% vs market's 48.2% (28.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Utrecht -0.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 50.6% (26.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-885.50 (ROI: -50.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-889.50 (ROI: -50.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1232.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Excelsior had 17 shots (8 on target) versus Utrecht's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -65.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -65.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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