Excelsior1 - 1FC Volendam
ExcelsiorWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 21', 25', 70' — and still finish +$1840?
Match Overview
Excelsior hosted FC Volendam in the Eredivisie, finishing 1-1. Goals: B. Pauwels (2'), G. Yah (38' OG). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 4 waves, achieving 47% precision with a net result of +$1839.75 (ROI: +24.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.99; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.94 to 1.99.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3. Average expected value was 21.0%, with a combined stake of $530. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-530.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 21' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** FC Volendam leading 0-1 at 21'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Excelsior 0. Average expected value was 36.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Excelsior 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.2% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 33.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$210.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** FC Volendam leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Excelsior -0.5 and Over 3.5 and Excelsior. Average expected value was 28.3%, with a combined stake of $3339. The sharpest edge was on Excelsior -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 44.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting +$343.25. ### Wave 4 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 70'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 and FC Volendam -0.5 and Draw and FC Volendam 0. Average expected value was 17.8%, with a combined stake of $3500. The sharpest edge was on FC Volendam 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.8% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 25.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 4 of 7 trades won, netting +$1816.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Excelsior -0.5: AI saw 81.1% vs market's 36.4% (44.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Excelsior -0.5: AI saw 80.9% vs market's 36.4% (44.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 21'** — Asian Handicap Excelsior 0: AI saw 82.2% vs market's 48.8% (33.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Excelsior: AI saw 60.4% vs market's 34.8% (25.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap FC Volendam 0: AI saw 61.8% vs market's 36.4% (25.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$2069.00 (ROI: +56.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$626.50 (ROI: +89.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-325.75 (ROI: -12.2%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-530.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62–38 in Excelsior's favor. Excelsior had 8 shots (2 on target) versus FC Volendam's 9 (2 on target). Corners: 5-0.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +24.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$2069.00.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +24.3% ROI on 15 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$2069.00.
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