AZ Alkmaar

2 - 2

Twente

AZ Alkmaar hosted Twente in the Eredivisie, finishing 2-2. Goals: J. Clasie (13'), J. Clasie (14'), R. Owusu-Oduro (32' OG), S. Lammers (55'), P. Koopmeiners (90'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1335.00 (ROI: -100.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 1.99; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.84 to 1.94; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.53 to 2.65.

### Wave 1 — Minute 75' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Twente leading 1-2 at 75'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Twente 0. Average expected value was 35.7%, with a combined stake of $1335. The sharpest edge was on Twente 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.6% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 33.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1335.00.

- **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Twente 0: AI saw 80.6% vs market's 47.6% (33.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Twente 0: AI saw 80.4% vs market's 47.6% (32.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Twente 0: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 47.6% (32.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-564.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-571.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 57%–43% in AZ Alkmaar's favor. AZ Alkmaar had 14 shots (3 on target) versus Twente's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.28 — Twente 0.43. Corners: 3-3.