AZ Alkmaar3 - 3NAC Breda
AZ AlkmaarWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 61', 73' — and still finish +$218?
Match Overview
AZ Alkmaar hosted NAC Breda in the Eredivisie, finishing 3-3. Goals: S. Mijnans (8'), M. Chavez Garcia (12'), M. Soumano (61'), M. Soumano (71'), J. Talvitie (89'), M. Meerdink (90'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 3 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$218.25 (ROI: +106.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.5 but home odds shifted from 2.01 to 1.96.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting NAC Breda -1.5. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $25. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$23.25. ### Wave 2 — Minute 61' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** AZ Alkmaar leading 2-1 at 61'. M. Soumano scored moments ago. NAC Breda made 3 substitutions. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting NAC Breda -1.5. Average expected value was 41.1%, with a combined stake of $21. The sharpest edge was on NAC Breda -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.9% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 38.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$18.38. ### Wave 3 — Minute 73' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after M. Soumano's equalizer at 71'. NAC Breda made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 14.0%, with a combined stake of $159. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 57.5% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$176.62.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap NAC Breda -1.5: AI saw 91.9% vs market's 53.3% (38.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap NAC Breda -1.5: AI saw 91.7% vs market's 53.3% (38.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap NAC Breda -1.5: AI saw 91.5% vs market's 53.3% (38.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 57.5% vs market's 45.5% (12.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 57.5% vs market's 47.2% (10.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$105.90 (ROI: +109.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$82.98 (ROI: +109.2%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$23.25 (ROI: +93.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$6.13 (ROI: +87.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54–46 in AZ Alkmaar's favor. AZ Alkmaar had 14 shots (10 on target) versus NAC Breda's 16 (11 on target). Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.25 — NAC Breda 2.05. Corners: 5-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +106.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$105.90.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +106.5% ROI on 11 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$105.90.
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