Almere City FC

3 - 0

Den Bosch

Almere City FC hosted Den Bosch in the Eredivisie, finishing 3-0. Goals: M. Dors (41'), F. Druijf (82'), J. Rijkhoff (89'). OddsFlow deployed 22 trades across 6 waves, achieving 41% precision with a net result of $-2828.33 (ROI: -23.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 3.5 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 1.99; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.62 to 1.74.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Almere City FC -0.5. Average expected value was 14.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Almere City FC -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.4% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 10.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$140.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Almere City FC and Almere City FC -0.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 17.6%, with a combined stake of $3992. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 82.4% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 22.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$2901.67. ### Wave 3 — Minute 42' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Almere City FC leading 1-0 at 42'. M. Dors scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Den Bosch -1 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 26.6%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Den Bosch -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.7% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 30.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Almere City FC leading 1-0 at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Den Bosch -1.5. Average expected value was 20.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Den Bosch -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.4% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 17.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Almere City FC leading 1-0 at 64'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 12.5%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 15.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 76' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Almere City FC leading 1-0 at 76'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Den Bosch 0 and Den Bosch -0.5. Average expected value was 31.8%, with a combined stake of $3260. The sharpest edge was on Den Bosch 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.8% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 35.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-1370.00.

- **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Den Bosch 0: AI saw 71.8% vs market's 36.4% (35.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Den Bosch 0: AI saw 71.5% vs market's 36.4% (35.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Den Bosch -1: AI saw 70.7% vs market's 40.0% (30.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Den Bosch -1: AI saw 70.6% vs market's 40.0% (30.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 76'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 93.5% vs market's 66.7% (26.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-360.00 (ROI: -51.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 4W/6L, $-1232.83 (ROI: -21.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 4W/6L, $-1235.50 (ROI: -22.0%)

Almere City FC had 3 shots (3 on target) versus Den Bosch's 0 (0 on target).