Ajax

1 - 2

Utrecht

Ajax hosted Utrecht in the Eredivisie, finishing 1-2. Goals: N. Vesterlund (81'), W. Weghorst (84'), M. van der Hoorn (90'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 7 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of $-2283.50 (ROI: -30.1%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.82 to 2.03.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Ajax -1. Average expected value was 35.7%, with a combined stake of $858. The sharpest edge was on Ajax -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.9% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 7.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-858.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Ajax -1.5. Average expected value was 14.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Ajax -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 52.6% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 11.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Ajax -0.5 and Ajax. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $2000. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.4%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$763.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 68' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 68'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 73' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 73'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 83' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Utrecht leading 0-1 at 83'. N. Vesterlund scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Ajax +0.5 and Utrecht and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 30.3%, with a combined stake of $1522. The sharpest edge was on Ajax +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.7% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 40.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$478.00.

- **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap Ajax +0.5: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 40.0% (40.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 84'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 66.7% (20.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 83'** — Moneyline Utrecht: AI saw 79.3% vs market's 66.7% (12.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Ajax -1.5: AI saw 52.6% vs market's 41.2% (11.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 4W/4L, $-392.00 (ROI: -9.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-833.50 (ROI: -33.3%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-858.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 64–36 in Ajax's favor. Ajax had 15 shots (6 on target) versus Utrecht's 13 (5 on target). Corners: 4-7.