Ajax

2 - 0

Groningen

Ajax hosted Groningen in the Eredivisie, finishing 2-0. Goals: D. Klaassen (24'), D. Klaassen (25'), J. Mokio (57'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 5 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-257.80 (ROI: -79.3%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.9; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.88 to 1.98.

### Wave 1 — Minute 13' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 13'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Groningen -0.5. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $19. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-19.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Ajax leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Groningen -1. Average expected value was 50.0%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Groningen -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.5% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 48.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Ajax leading 1-0 at 44'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Groningen -1.5. Average expected value was 35.5%, with a combined stake of $21. The sharpest edge was on Groningen -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.4% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 32.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$16.80. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Ajax leading 1-0 at 47'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Groningen -1. Average expected value was 52.3%, with a combined stake of $5. The sharpest edge was on Groningen -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.4% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 50.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 57' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Ajax leading 2-0 at 57'. J. Mokio scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 3.25 and Over 2.5 and Groningen -1.5. Average expected value was 38.9%, with a combined stake of $270. The sharpest edge was on Groningen -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.3% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 38.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 1 of 8 trades won, netting $-255.60.

- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Groningen -1: AI saw 88.4% vs market's 38.5% (50.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Groningen -1: AI saw 86.5% vs market's 38.5% (48.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Groningen -1: AI saw 85.9% vs market's 38.5% (47.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap Groningen -1.5: AI saw 94.3% vs market's 55.6% (38.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Groningen -1.5: AI saw 88.4% vs market's 55.6% (32.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-13.40 (ROI: -51.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-47.60 (ROI: -71.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-48.40 (ROI: -73.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-148.40 (ROI: -89.4%)

Possession was 62–38 in Ajax's favor. Ajax had 12 shots (5 on target) versus Groningen's 5 (1 on target). Expected goals: Ajax 1.83 — Groningen 0.16. Corners: 4-0.