The New Saints1 - 0Flora Tallinn
The New SaintsWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-8 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
The New Saints hosted Flora Tallinn in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 1-0. Goals: B. Wilson (90'), B. Wilson (90'), T. Usta (120' pen), R. Brobbel (120' pen), D. Williams (120' pen), R. Alliku (120' pen), T. Teevali (120' pen), M. Kalimullin (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-8.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 1.95; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2 to 1.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Flora Tallinn 0 and Flora Tallinn -0.5. Average expected value was 16.1%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Flora Tallinn 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 20.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-8.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Flora Tallinn 0: AI saw 57.2% vs market's 36.4% (20.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-8.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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