Strasbourg

0 - 1

Rayo Vallecano

Strasbourg hosted Rayo Vallecano in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 0-1. Goals: Alemao (42'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 8 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of $-1975.97 (ROI: -19.1%).

The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Strasbourg -0.5. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Strasbourg -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 49.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 7.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Strasbourg -0.5 and Strasbourg and Under 2.5 and Rayo Vallecano 0. Average expected value was 8.1%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Rayo Vallecano 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 51.9% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 8.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-986.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 32'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Strasbourg and Strasbourg -0.5. Average expected value was 8.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Strasbourg -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 44.7% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 6.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rayo Vallecano 0. Average expected value was 3.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$762.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Strasbourg +0.5 and Rayo Vallecano. Average expected value was 25.1%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Strasbourg +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.6% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 41.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting $-1233.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Rayo Vallecano leading 0-1 at 53'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Strasbourg +1. Average expected value was 19.9%, with a combined stake of $2157. The sharpest edge was on Strasbourg +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 29.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1681.53. ### Wave 7 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Rayo Vallecano leading 0-1 at 65'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 68' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Rayo Vallecano leading 0-1 at 68'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg +0.5: AI saw 78.6% vs market's 37.4% (41.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg +0.5: AI saw 77.9% vs market's 37.4% (40.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg +1: AI saw 84.1% vs market's 54.8% (29.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg +1: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 54.8% (28.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 42'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 36.3% vs market's 25.0% (11.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$13.50 (ROI: +0.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 4W/4L, $-499.87 (ROI: -12.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 8 trades, 3W/5L, $-1289.60 (ROI: -31.7%)

Possession was 49–51 in Strasbourg's deficit. Strasbourg had 9 shots (1 on target) versus Rayo Vallecano's 22 (8 on target). Expected goals: Strasbourg 0.76 — Rayo Vallecano 1.63. Corners: 4-6.