Ludogorets2 - 2Hapoel Tel Aviv
LudogoretsWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-4 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Ludogorets hosted Hapoel Tel Aviv in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 2-2. Goals: X. Silva (16'), E. Boateng (16'), B. Tekpetey (47'), A. Salido Tajero (54'), E. Boateng (58'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 1.92.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Hapoel Tel Aviv leading 0-1 at 30'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hapoel Tel Aviv 0. Average expected value was 17.1%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Hapoel Tel Aviv 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.6% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 14.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Hapoel Tel Aviv 0: AI saw 54.6% vs market's 40.0% (14.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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