GKS Katowice3 - 1Žilina
GKS KatowiceWhy did AI enter 2 times at 10', 28' — and still finish $-10?
Match Overview
GKS Katowice hosted Žilina in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 3-1. Goals: A. Zrelak (48'), A. Zrelak (49'), F. Kosa (57'), M. Wdowiak (79'), I. Shkurin (82'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.8 to 1.82.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Žilina -0.5. Average expected value was 14.6%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Žilina -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.4% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 12.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Žilina -1. Average expected value was 29.1%, with a combined stake of $6. The sharpest edge was on Žilina -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.4% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 25.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-6.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Žilina -1: AI saw 84.4% vs market's 58.8% (25.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Žilina -0.5: AI saw 57.4% vs market's 45.5% (12.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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