FK Zalgiris Vilnius7 - 2Dinamo Tbilisi
FK Zalgiris VilniusWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-4 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
FK Zalgiris Vilnius hosted Dinamo Tbilisi in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 7-2. Goals: S. Bilenkyi (25'), Leo Santos (40'), N. Petkovic (59'), B. Teixeira (61'), M. Vatsadze (72'), N. Petkovic (74'), S. Bilenkyi (82'), N. Mihajlovic (88'), S. Bilenkyi (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 1.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FK Zalgiris Vilnius leading 1-0 at 30'. null scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Dinamo Tbilisi -0.5. Average expected value was 20.6%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Dinamo Tbilisi -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.6% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 18.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Dinamo Tbilisi -0.5: AI saw 68.6% vs market's 50.6% (18.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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