FC Sion4 - 0Bate Borisov
FC SionWhy did AI enter 3 times at 16', 47', 50' — and still finish $-22?
Match Overview
FC Sion hosted Bate Borisov in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 4-0. Goals: W. Boteli (5'), R. Nivokazi (38'), Baltazar (58'), T. Berdayes (68'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 3 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-22.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -2.5 to -2.25; the Over/Under stayed at 3.5 with Over odds moving from 1.91 to 2.1.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 16' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC Sion leading 1-0 at 16'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bate Borisov -1.5. Average expected value was 41.2%, with a combined stake of $6. The sharpest edge was on Bate Borisov -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 38.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-6.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** FC Sion leading 2-0 at 47'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bate Borisov -1. Average expected value was 60.4%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Bate Borisov -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 58.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 50' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** FC Sion leading 2-0 at 50'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Bate Borisov -1.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 38.5%, with a combined stake of $12. The sharpest edge was on Bate Borisov -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.5% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 41.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-12.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Bate Borisov -1: AI saw 94.6% vs market's 36.4% (58.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Bate Borisov -1.5: AI saw 95.5% vs market's 54.1% (41.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 16'** — Asian Handicap Bate Borisov -1.5: AI saw 86.6% vs market's 48.2% (38.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 72.1% vs market's 42.1% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-6.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-16.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53–47 in FC Sion's favor. FC Sion had 17 shots (7 on target) versus Bate Borisov's 5 (0 on target). Corners: 10-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-6.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-6.00.
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