FC Nordsjaelland6 - 0Gais
FC NordsjaellandWhat went wrong? 4 trades, $-20 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
FC Nordsjaelland hosted Gais in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 6-0. Goals: R. Norheim (11'), O. Agren (14' OG), V. Berthelsen (14'), H. Rasmussen (36'), H. Rasmussen (37'), R. Norheim (59'), P. Amoako (63'), N. Rojkjaer (81'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-20.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 1.8; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.73 to 1.65.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** FC Nordsjaelland leading 2-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 20.1%, with a combined stake of $20. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 57.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 17.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-20.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 57.3% vs market's 40.0% (17.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 57.0% vs market's 40.0% (17.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 81.6% vs market's 65.2% (16.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 65.2% (15.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56–44 in FC Nordsjaelland's favor. FC Nordsjaelland had 21 shots (10 on target) versus Gais's 10 (2 on target). Corners: 2-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-10.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-10.00.
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