Dukagjini1 - 5FC Lugano
DukagjiniWhy did AI enter 2 times at 35', 38' — and still finish $-14?
Match Overview
Dukagjini hosted FC Lugano in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 1-5. Goals: K. Behrens (6'), D. Dos Santos (9'), M. Maliqi (10'), K. Behrens (36'), E. Sinani (51' OG), K. Behrens (58'), K. Behrens (59'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-13.50 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 1; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 1.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 5 to 6.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** FC Lugano leading 1-2 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Dukagjini +0.5 and Under 5.5. Average expected value was 30.4%, with a combined stake of $18. The sharpest edge was on Dukagjini +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.1% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 41.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-18.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-3) **Context:** FC Lugano leading 1-3 at 38'. K. Behrens scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 6.5. Average expected value was 18.3%, with a combined stake of $9. The sharpest edge was on Under 6.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 81.1% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 14.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$4.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Dukagjini +0.5: AI saw 83.1% vs market's 42.1% (41.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Dukagjini +0.5: AI saw 83.0% vs market's 42.1% (40.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 38'** — Over/Under Under 6.5: AI saw 81.1% vs market's 66.7% (14.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Over/Under Under 6.5: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 66.7% (13.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 74.9% vs market's 61.9% (13.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-6.50 (ROI: -46.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-7.00 (ROI: -53.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 37–63 in Dukagjini's deficit. Dukagjini had 9 shots (4 on target) versus FC Lugano's 12 (7 on target). Corners: 1-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-6.50.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-6.50.
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