Derry City0 - 1HNK Rijeka
Derry CityWhy did AI enter 2 times at 10', 15' — and still finish $-4?
Match Overview
Derry City hosted HNK Rijeka in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 0-1. Goals: D. Adu Adjei (14'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-4.00 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 1.9; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.33 to 4.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Derry City +0.5. Average expected value was 20.0%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Derry City +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 16.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** HNK Rijeka leading 0-1 at 15'. null scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Derry City 0. Average expected value was 14.3%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Derry City 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.3% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 11.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Derry City +0.5: AI saw 74.6% vs market's 58.0% (16.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Derry City 0: AI saw 56.3% vs market's 44.4% (11.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-4.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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