CFR 1907 Cluj3 - 0Alashkert
CFR 1907 ClujWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-4 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
CFR 1907 Cluj hosted Alashkert in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 3-0. Goals: K. Muhar (3'), M. Korenica (45'), M. Korenica (45'), A. Fica (77'). Alashkert received a red card (Cezar, 12'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** CFR 1907 Cluj leading 1-0 at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Alashkert -0.5. Average expected value was 27.9%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Alashkert -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 25.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Alashkert -0.5: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 50.6% (25.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-4.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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