Beitar Jerusalem2 - 3AEK Larnaca
Beitar JerusalemWhy did AI enter 2 times at 10', 25' — and still finish +$3?
Match Overview
Beitar Jerusalem hosted AEK Larnaca in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 2-3. Goals: H. Milicevic (26' pen), O. Atzili (45' pen), H. Milicevic (52'), H. Milicevic (53'), O. Atzili (87'), R. Bajic (90'), D. Ivanovic (120' pen), H. Milicevic (120' pen), T. Muzie (120' pen), B. Carabali (120' pen), K. Pileas (120' pen), Y. Cohen (120' pen), E. Ansah (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$2.70 (ROI: +33.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting AEK Larnaca 0. Average expected value was 15.9%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on AEK Larnaca 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 51.0% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 13.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$6.70. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Beitar Jerusalem +0.5. Average expected value was 22.7%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Beitar Jerusalem +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.0% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 19.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-4.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Beitar Jerusalem +0.5: AI saw 76.0% vs market's 56.3% (19.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap AEK Larnaca 0: AI saw 51.0% vs market's 37.4% (13.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$2.70 (ROI: +33.7%)
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +33.7% ROI.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +33.7% ROI on 2 trades.
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