Apollon Limassol3 - 0Dila
Apollon LimassolWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-105 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Apollon Limassol hosted Dila in the UEFA Europa Conference League, finishing 3-0. Goals: B. Thomas (22'), G. Rodrigues (62'), G. Rodrigues (63'), D. Escriche (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-105.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.5 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 1.92.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 22' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 22'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Dila -1. Average expected value was 49.6%, with a combined stake of $105. The sharpest edge was on Dila -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.7% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 36.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-105.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 22'** — Asian Handicap Dila -1: AI saw 82.7% vs market's 46.5% (36.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 22'** — Asian Handicap Dila -1: AI saw 82.7% vs market's 51.5% (31.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-105.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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