Yunnan Yukun

1 - 0

Shanghai Shenhua

Yunnan Yukun hosted Shanghai Shenhua in the Super League, finishing 1-0. Goals: O. Taty Maritu (66'). OddsFlow deployed 26 trades across 5 waves, achieving 54% precision with a net result of +$1380.24 (ROI: +18.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.02 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.75; the home moneyline shortened from 2.29 to 2.12.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Yunnan Yukun -0.25. Average expected value was 28.6%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Yunnan Yukun -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.4% probability versus the market's implied 53.2% — a 15.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.88. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$8.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Yunnan Yukun -0.5. Average expected value was 25.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Yunnan Yukun -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 23.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$215.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Yunnan Yukun -0.5 and Yunnan Yukun and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 21.0%, with a combined stake of $3201. The sharpest edge was on Yunnan Yukun -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.6% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 21.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 8 of 10 trades won, netting +$1872.77. ### Wave 4 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 30.5%, with a combined stake of $1300. The sharpest edge was on Over 2 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.1% probability versus the market's implied 50.8% — a 22.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.97. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-1300.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 66'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Shanghai Shenhua 0 and Shanghai Shenhua -1 and Under 2.5 and Under 2. Average expected value was 21.3%, with a combined stake of $2857. The sharpest edge was on Shanghai Shenhua -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.1% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 39.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** 4 of 8 trades won, netting +$583.67.

- **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Shanghai Shenhua -1: AI saw 89.1% vs market's 49.4% (39.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Shanghai Shenhua -1: AI saw 88.2% vs market's 49.4% (38.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Yunnan Yukun -0.5: AI saw 71.3% vs market's 48.2% (23.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Over/Under Over 2: AI saw 73.1% vs market's 50.8% (22.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Over/Under Over 2: AI saw 73.1% vs market's 50.8% (22.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 13 trades, 7W/6L, +$726.02 (ROI: +18.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 5W/6L, +$430.43 (ROI: +12.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$215.00 (ROI: +107.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$8.80 (ROI: +88.0%)

Possession was 56–44 in Yunnan Yukun's favor. Yunnan Yukun had 13 shots (6 on target) versus Shanghai Shenhua's 12 (1 on target). Corners: 3-4.