Yunnan Yukun2 - 3Qingdao Youth Island
Yunnan YukunWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 35', 47', 53', 71', 77' — and still finish +$5543?
Match Overview
Yunnan Yukun hosted Qingdao Youth Island in the Super League, finishing 2-3. Goals: A. Ionita II (13'), N. Da Luz (45'), Peng Xinli (52'), N. Da Luz (68'), O. Taty Maritu (85' pen). OddsFlow deployed 39 trades across 6 waves, achieving 56% precision with a net result of +$5543.33 (ROI: +40.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the home moneyline shortened from 1.86 to 1.71.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3. Average expected value was 32.4%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 57.2% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 5.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Yunnan Yukun leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Qingdao Youth Island -1 and Under 3 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 41.6%, with a combined stake of $4917. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Youth Island -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.9% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 50.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 2 of 10 trades won, netting $-489.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after N. Da Luz's equalizer at 45'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Qingdao Youth Island 0 and Qingdao Youth Island -0.5. Average expected value was 22.8%, with a combined stake of $3620. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Youth Island 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.6% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 29.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 9 of 15 trades won, netting +$1917.26. ### Wave 4 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Qingdao Youth Island leading 1-2 at 53'. Peng Xinli scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Yunnan Yukun +0.5 and Qingdao Youth Island and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 46.8%, with a combined stake of $3221. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Youth Island (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 64.1% probability versus the market's implied 25.6% — a 38.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.9. **Result:** 8 of 10 trades won, netting +$1311.27. ### Wave 5 — Minute 71' (Score: 1-3) **Context:** Qingdao Youth Island leading 1-3 at 71'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Yunnan Yukun +1.5. Average expected value was 57.0%, with a combined stake of $1268. The sharpest edge was on Yunnan Yukun +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 54.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1711.80. ### Wave 6 — Minute 77' (Score: 1-3) **Context:** Qingdao Youth Island leading 1-3 at 77'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Yunnan Yukun +1.5. Average expected value was 63.0%, with a combined stake of $630. The sharpest edge was on Yunnan Yukun +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 60.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1102.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Yunnan Yukun +1.5: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 36.4% (60.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Yunnan Yukun +1.5: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 42.6% (54.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Yunnan Yukun +1.5: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 42.6% (54.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Youth Island -1: AI saw 90.9% vs market's 40.0% (50.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Youth Island -1: AI saw 90.4% vs market's 40.0% (50.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 18 trades, 10W/8L, +$2076.52 (ROI: +32.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 18 trades, 10W/8L, +$2054.31 (ROI: +32.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1102.50 (ROI: +175.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$320.00 (ROI: +160.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62–38 in Yunnan Yukun's favor. Yunnan Yukun had 20 shots (7 on target) versus Qingdao Youth Island's 12 (7 on target). Corners: 6-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +40.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2076.52.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +40.6% ROI on 39 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2076.52.
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