Tianjin Teda

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Henan Jianye

Tianjin Teda hosted Henan Jianye in the Super League, finishing 1-2. Goals: Gustavo (26'), A. Quiles (60'), Bruno Nazario (85' pen), Bruno Nazario (86' pen), Wang Qiuming (90'). OddsFlow deployed 31 trades across 6 waves, achieving 61% precision with a net result of +$3683.21 (ROI: +40.5%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.01 to 2.14; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.89 to 3.12.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tianjin Teda 0. Average expected value was 16.4%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Henan Jianye leading 0-1 at 35'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tianjin Teda +1. Average expected value was 37.0%, with a combined stake of $1682. The sharpest edge was on Tianjin Teda +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.3% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 34.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2102.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Henan Jianye leading 0-1 at 50'. Tianjin Teda made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Under 2. Average expected value was 29.5%, with a combined stake of $1298. The sharpest edge was on Under 2 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 71.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.8% — a 20.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.97. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-1298.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Henan Jianye leading 0-1 at 55'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2 and Tianjin Teda +0.5 and Over 1.5 and Henan Jianye. Average expected value was 30.2%, with a combined stake of $3634. The sharpest edge was on Tianjin Teda +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.5% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 26.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 10 trades won, netting +$3085.15. ### Wave 5 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Quiles's equalizer at 60'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 41.1%, with a combined stake of $1129. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 54.0% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 30.9 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-1129.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Quiles's equalizer at 60'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Henan Jianye 0. Average expected value was 31.4%, with a combined stake of $1336. The sharpest edge was on Henan Jianye 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.5% — a 22.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.71. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$932.56.

- **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Tianjin Teda +1: AI saw 79.3% vs market's 44.4% (34.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Tianjin Teda +1: AI saw 78.7% vs market's 44.4% (34.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Tianjin Teda +1: AI saw 78.7% vs market's 44.4% (34.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 54.0% vs market's 23.1% (30.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 60'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 54.0% vs market's 26.7% (27.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 14 trades, 9W/5L, +$1746.23 (ROI: +39.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 15 trades, 9W/6L, +$1696.98 (ROI: +37.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$250.00 (ROI: +125.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 50–50 in Tianjin Teda's deficit. Tianjin Teda had 9 shots (3 on target) versus Henan Jianye's 8 (3 on target). Corners: 4-1.