Shenyang Urban

3 - 2

SHANGHAI SIPG

Shenyang Urban hosted SHANGHAI SIPG in the Super League, finishing 3-2. Goals: T. Kunimoto (9'), Li Shuai (20'), G. Mbenza (70'), Leonardo (84'), Jeffinho (85'). Shenyang Urban received a red card (Jeffinho, 86'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 5 waves, achieving 13% precision with a net result of $-3319.10 (ROI: -54.6%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 2.58 to 2.37.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Shenyang Urban leading 1-0 at 10'. T. Kunimoto scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting SHANGHAI SIPG -1. Average expected value was 35.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on SHANGHAI SIPG -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.4% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 33.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$190.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Li Shuai's equalizer at 20'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and SHANGHAI SIPG 0 and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 13.5%, with a combined stake of $2565. The sharpest edge was on SHANGHAI SIPG 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.3% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 15.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 7 trades lost, netting $-2565.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 43'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 8.4%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 47.7% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 5.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 50'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 9.7%, with a combined stake of $565. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 37.6% probability versus the market's implied 32.3% — a 5.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.1. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-565.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after G. Mbenza's equalizer at 70'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting SHANGHAI SIPG -1. Average expected value was 40.8%, with a combined stake of $1749. The sharpest edge was on SHANGHAI SIPG -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.7% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 37.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$620.90.

- **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap SHANGHAI SIPG -1: AI saw 96.7% vs market's 58.8% (37.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap SHANGHAI SIPG -1: AI saw 95.5% vs market's 58.8% (36.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap SHANGHAI SIPG -1: AI saw 84.4% vs market's 51.3% (33.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap SHANGHAI SIPG 0: AI saw 61.3% vs market's 45.5% (15.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap SHANGHAI SIPG 0: AI saw 61.1% vs market's 45.5% (15.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$190.00 (ROI: +95.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/6L, $-1444.10 (ROI: -48.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 0W/6L/1V, $-2065.00 (ROI: -70.6%)

Possession was 41–59 in Shenyang Urban's deficit. Shenyang Urban had 9 shots (4 on target) versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 10 (4 on target). Corners: 1-12.