SHANGHAI SIPG2 - 2Hangzhou Greentown
SHANGHAI SIPGWhy did AI enter 2 times at 44', 56' — and still finish +$368?
Match Overview
SHANGHAI SIPG hosted Hangzhou Greentown in the Super League, finishing 2-2. Goals: Mateus Vital (22'), Y. Wang (28'), Gao Di (56'), Zhang Yuan (82'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 2 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of +$367.90 (ROI: +13.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 2.02; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.87 to 2.01.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 44'. 2 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Hangzhou Greentown 0 and Under 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 18.5%, with a combined stake of $1765. The sharpest edge was on Hangzhou Greentown 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.5% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 22.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting +$626.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 56' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Hangzhou Greentown leading 1-2 at 56'. Gao Di scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Hangzhou Greentown and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 9.9%, with a combined stake of $1066. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 68.6% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 6.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting $-258.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Hangzhou Greentown 0: AI saw 62.5% vs market's 40.0% (22.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Hangzhou Greentown 0: AI saw 61.4% vs market's 40.0% (21.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 44'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 58.3% vs market's 45.5% (12.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 4W/4L/1V, +$367.90 (ROI: +14.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 63–37 in SHANGHAI SIPG's favor. SHANGHAI SIPG had 7 shots (2 on target) versus Hangzhou Greentown's 10 (3 on target). Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +13.0% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$367.90.
A positive result with +13.0% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$367.90. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$367.90.
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