Shanghai Shenhua

2 - 2

Wuhan Three Towns

Shanghai Shenhua hosted Wuhan Three Towns in the Super League, finishing 2-2. Goals: Xu Haoyang (7'), Rafael Ratao (37'), Gustavo Sauer (44'), J. Cadiz (74'). OddsFlow deployed 28 trades across 6 waves, achieving 68% precision with a net result of +$8521.24 (ROI: +79.1%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.41 to 1.53.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Wuhan Three Towns -1. Average expected value was 21.9%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Wuhan Three Towns -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 8.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$23.95. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Shanghai Shenhua leading 1-0 at 30'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Wuhan Three Towns -1.5. Average expected value was 41.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Wuhan Three Towns -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.7% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 38.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$220.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Shanghai Shenhua leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Wuhan Three Towns -1.5. Average expected value was 43.3%, with a combined stake of $1883. The sharpest edge was on Wuhan Three Towns -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.6% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 41.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2165.45. ### Wave 4 — Minute 38' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Shanghai Shenhua leading 2-0 at 38'. Rafael Ratao scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5 and Under 3.5 and Under 4 and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 26.2%, with a combined stake of $3300. The sharpest edge was on Under 4 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 74.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 23.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** 4 of 10 trades won, netting +$1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 50' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Shanghai Shenhua leading 2-1 at 50'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Wuhan Three Towns -1. Average expected value was 56.2%, with a combined stake of $1204. The sharpest edge was on Wuhan Three Towns -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 54.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2107.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 74' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Shanghai Shenhua leading 2-1 at 74'. J. Cadiz scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Wuhan Three Towns -1 and Wuhan Three Towns 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $4159. The sharpest edge was on Wuhan Three Towns -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 55.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 8 of 11 trades won, netting +$3004.85.

- **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Wuhan Three Towns -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 41.2% (55.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Wuhan Three Towns -1: AI saw 90.5% vs market's 36.4% (54.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Wuhan Three Towns -1: AI saw 90.1% vs market's 36.4% (53.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Wuhan Three Towns 0: AI saw 79.5% vs market's 36.4% (43.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Wuhan Three Towns 0: AI saw 79.3% vs market's 36.4% (42.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 7W/1L/3V, +$3161.76 (ROI: +74.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 5W/1L/3V, +$3120.80 (ROI: +74.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/0L/1V, +$1994.73 (ROI: +95.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$220.00 (ROI: +110.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$23.95 (ROI: +95.8%)

Possession was 43–57 in Shanghai Shenhua's deficit. Shanghai Shenhua had 15 shots (4 on target) versus Wuhan Three Towns's 19 (8 on target). Corners: 4-4.