Shanghai Shenhua1 - 2Sichuan Jiuniu
Shanghai ShenhuaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 32', 35', 52' — and still finish +$5477?
Match Overview
Shanghai Shenhua hosted Sichuan Jiuniu in the Super League, finishing 1-2. Goals: A. Ademi (5'), E. Kartsev (17' pen), Rafael Ratao (24' pen), A. Ademi (63'). OddsFlow deployed 34 trades across 4 waves, achieving 74% precision with a net result of +$5477.33 (ROI: +46.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.92; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.98 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sichuan Jiuniu -1. Average expected value was 26.1%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$9.70. ### Wave 2 — Minute 32' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Sichuan Jiuniu leading 1-2 at 32'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shanghai Shenhua -0.5. Average expected value was 19.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Shanghai Shenhua -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.0% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 16.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Sichuan Jiuniu leading 1-2 at 35'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 5.5 and Sichuan Jiuniu. Average expected value was 23.7%, with a combined stake of $3955. The sharpest edge was on Under 5.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.6% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 23.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 18 trades won, netting +$4771.03. ### Wave 4 — Minute 52' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Sichuan Jiuniu leading 1-2 at 52'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Sichuan Jiuniu 0 and Over 3.5 and Under 4.5 and Shanghai Shenhua +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 16.0%, with a combined stake of $7616. The sharpest edge was on Shanghai Shenhua +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.1% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 40.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 6 of 14 trades won, netting +$896.60.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Shanghai Shenhua +0.5: AI saw 87.1% vs market's 46.5% (40.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Shanghai Shenhua +0.5: AI saw 86.4% vs market's 46.5% (39.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Shanghai Shenhua +0.5: AI saw 86.7% vs market's 47.6% (39.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 73.6% vs market's 50.0% (23.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 73.6% vs market's 50.0% (23.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 8W/1L/1V, +$2266.75 (ROI: +63.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 8W/2L/1V, +$1729.95 (ROI: +43.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 11 trades, 8W/2L/1V, +$1670.93 (ROI: +41.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$9.70 (ROI: +97.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 60–40 in Shanghai Shenhua's favor. Shanghai Shenhua had 9 shots (3 on target) versus Sichuan Jiuniu's 15 (6 on target). Corners: 6-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +46.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$2266.75.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +46.5% ROI on 34 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$2266.75.
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