Shandong Luneng

3 - 3

Wuhan Three Towns

Shandong Luneng hosted Wuhan Three Towns in the Super League, finishing 3-3. Goals: Cryzan (6' pen), Gustavo Sauer (13'), J. Cadiz (28' pen), J. Cadiz (30' pen), Xie Wenneng (44'), Cryzan (69'), J. Cadiz (88'). OddsFlow deployed 18 trades across 7 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$3052.59 (ROI: +48.6%).

The Asian Handicap held at -1.5 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 2.01; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.25. Average expected value was 44.4%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.3% — a 22.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.99. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$54.90. ### Wave 2 — Minute 14' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Gustavo Sauer's equalizer at 13'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shandong Luneng -1. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Wuhan Three Towns leading 1-2 at 35'. J. Cadiz scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Shandong Luneng -0.5 and Over 5.5. Average expected value was 26.1%, with a combined stake of $2218. The sharpest edge was on Shandong Luneng -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.9% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 31.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2629.69. ### Wave 4 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Wuhan Three Towns leading 1-2 at 41'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Shandong Luneng. Average expected value was 18.2%, with a combined stake of $1147. The sharpest edge was on Shandong Luneng (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 49.0% probability versus the market's implied 37.5% — a 11.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.67. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-1147.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 45' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after Xie Wenneng's equalizer at 44'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 6.5. Average expected value was 12.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 6.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 50.1% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 10.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 71' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Shandong Luneng leading 3-2 at 71'. Cryzan scored moments ago. Shandong Luneng made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Wuhan Three Towns -1. Average expected value was 55.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Wuhan Three Towns -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.3% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 52.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1675.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 79' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Shandong Luneng leading 3-2 at 79'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Wuhan Three Towns -1. Average expected value was 59.5%, with a combined stake of $650. The sharpest edge was on Wuhan Three Towns -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.7% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 57.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1040.00.

- **Minute 79'** — Asian Handicap Wuhan Three Towns -1: AI saw 95.7% vs market's 38.5% (57.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Wuhan Three Towns -1: AI saw 90.3% vs market's 37.4% (52.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Wuhan Three Towns -1: AI saw 90.1% vs market's 37.4% (52.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Shandong Luneng -0.5: AI saw 72.9% vs market's 41.2% (31.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Shandong Luneng -0.5: AI saw 72.0% vs market's 41.2% (30.8pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, +$1094.21 (ROI: +40.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, +$1063.47 (ROI: +40.1%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1040.00 (ROI: +160.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$54.90 (ROI: +91.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 55–45 in Shandong Luneng's favor. Shandong Luneng had 18 shots (9 on target) versus Wuhan Three Towns's 17 (5 on target). Corners: 3-2.