Shandong Luneng

3 - 1

Chongqing Tongliang Long

Shandong Luneng hosted Chongqing Tongliang Long in the Super League, finishing 3-1. Goals: Guilherme Madruga (35'), Guilherme Madruga (38'), L. Dimata (69'), Xie Wenneng (90'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 4 waves, achieving 69% precision with a net result of +$1640.40 (ROI: +28.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 1.85; the home moneyline shortened from 1.57 to 1.47.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shandong Luneng -1.25. Average expected value was 21.6%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Shandong Luneng -1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.6% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 10.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$10.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chongqing Tongliang Long -1. Average expected value was 9.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Chongqing Tongliang Long -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 43.8% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 36' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Shandong Luneng leading 1-0 at 36'. Guilherme Madruga scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Chongqing Tongliang Long -1.5 and Over 2.5 and Over 3 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 28.1%, with a combined stake of $3308. The sharpest edge was on Chongqing Tongliang Long -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 27.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 8 of 10 trades won, netting +$1297.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 69' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Shandong Luneng leading 2-1 at 69'. L. Dimata scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 3.5 and Chongqing Tongliang Long -1. Average expected value was 32.4%, with a combined stake of $2189. The sharpest edge was on Chongqing Tongliang Long -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 53.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$533.00.

- **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Chongqing Tongliang Long -1: AI saw 89.7% vs market's 36.4% (53.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Chongqing Tongliang Long -1: AI saw 89.5% vs market's 36.4% (53.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Chongqing Tongliang Long -1.5: AI saw 68.0% vs market's 40.0% (27.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Chongqing Tongliang Long -1.5: AI saw 67.1% vs market's 40.0% (27.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Over 3: AI saw 72.5% vs market's 50.5% (22.0pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$920.00 (ROI: +33.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$910.00 (ROI: +33.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$10.40 (ROI: +104.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 58–42 in Shandong Luneng's favor. Shandong Luneng had 15 shots (6 on target) versus Chongqing Tongliang Long's 8 (3 on target). Corners: 4-4.