Qingdao Youth Island

2 - 2

Shanghai Shenhua

Qingdao Youth Island hosted Shanghai Shenhua in the Super League, finishing 2-2. Goals: Wu Xi (2'), A. Yakubu (45' pen), Davidson (49'), Zhu Chenjie (73'). OddsFlow deployed 47 trades across 5 waves, achieving 70% precision with a net result of +$10217.83 (ROI: +59.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.87 to 1.96; the home moneyline shortened from 2.51 to 2.3.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Qingdao Youth Island -0.25. Average expected value was 33.5%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Youth Island -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.4% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 17.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-30.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 12' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Shanghai Shenhua leading 0-1 at 12'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Qingdao Youth Island +0.5. Average expected value was 43.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Youth Island +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 40.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$190.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Shanghai Shenhua leading 0-1 at 35'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Qingdao Youth Island +0.5 and Over 2.75 and Qingdao Youth Island and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 48.4%, with a combined stake of $7908. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Youth Island +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 42.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 12 of 21 trades won, netting +$3199.83. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Shanghai Shenhua leading 0-1 at 46'. A. Yakubu scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Qingdao Youth Island -0.5 and Over 3.5 and Shanghai Shenhua 0 and Shanghai Shenhua -1 and Over 4.5. Average expected value was 16.6%, with a combined stake of $8159. The sharpest edge was on Shanghai Shenhua -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.1% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 30.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 18 of 21 trades won, netting +$6243.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 77' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after Zhu Chenjie's equalizer at 73'. Qingdao Youth Island made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$615.00.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Youth Island +0.5: AI saw 91.0% vs market's 48.8% (42.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Youth Island +0.5: AI saw 90.5% vs market's 48.8% (41.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Youth Island +0.5: AI saw 90.1% vs market's 48.8% (41.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 12'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Youth Island +0.5: AI saw 92.0% vs market's 51.3% (40.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Shanghai Shenhua -1: AI saw 81.1% vs market's 50.6% (30.5pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 14 trades, 10W/4L, +$3264.79 (ROI: +58.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 15 trades, 11W/4L, +$3246.49 (ROI: +56.8%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 14 trades, 10W/4L, +$2946.54 (ROI: +56.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$790.00 (ROI: +112.9%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/0L/2V, $-30.00 (ROI: -50.0%)

Possession was 57–43 in Qingdao Youth Island's favor. Qingdao Youth Island had 10 shots (3 on target) versus Shanghai Shenhua's 8 (3 on target). Corners: 6-2.