Qingdao Youth Island1 - 1Beijing Guoan
Qingdao Youth IslandWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 10', 41', 61' — and still finish +$2921?
Match Overview
Qingdao Youth Island hosted Beijing Guoan in the Super League, finishing 1-1. Goals: Davidson (73'), Lin Liangming (78'). Qingdao Youth Island received a red card (Rezende, 62'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 4 waves, achieving 82% precision with a net result of +$2921.20 (ROI: +76.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.62 to 4.24.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.75. Average expected value was 30.9%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 62.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 10.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Beijing Guoan +1. Average expected value was 7.3%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 11.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.8% — a 10.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.97. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$970.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 61' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 61'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 0.75 and Qingdao Youth Island +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 16.0%, with a combined stake of $2589. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Youth Island +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 13.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 7 trades won, netting +$2161.20.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Youth Island +0.5: AI saw 69.0% vs market's 55.6% (13.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Youth Island +0.5: AI saw 69.0% vs market's 55.6% (13.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Youth Island +0.5: AI saw 68.4% vs market's 55.6% (12.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Youth Island +0.5: AI saw 68.4% vs market's 55.6% (12.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 61'** — Over/Under Over 0.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 58.1% (11.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$1849.40 (ROI: +90.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$1281.80 (ROI: +82.9%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 30–70 in Qingdao Youth Island's deficit. Qingdao Youth Island had 8 shots (3 on target) versus Beijing Guoan's 18 (7 on target). Corners: 3-9.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +76.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1849.40.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +76.9% ROI on 11 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1849.40.
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