Qingdao Jonoon

0 - 1

Chongqing Tongliang Long

Qingdao Jonoon hosted Chongqing Tongliang Long in the Super League, finishing 0-1. Goals: G. Cimpanu (63'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 5 waves, achieving 35% precision with a net result of +$537.50 (ROI: +8.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.09 to 2.13; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.81 to 1.87.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.25. Average expected value was 41.2%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.9% probability versus the market's implied 53.5% — a 17.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.87. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Qingdao Jonoon -0.5. Average expected value was 20.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Jonoon -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.2% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 17.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Qingdao Jonoon -0.5 and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0 and Over 1.5 and Qingdao Jonoon. Average expected value was 11.6%, with a combined stake of $4211. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 69.1% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 16.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** 2 of 11 trades won, netting $-1461.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 11.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$571.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 64' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Chongqing Tongliang Long leading 0-1 at 64'. G. Cimpanu scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Qingdao Jonoon +0.5. Average expected value was 51.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Jonoon +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.6% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 50.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1637.50.

- **Minute 65'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Jonoon +0.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 37.4% (50.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Jonoon +0.5: AI saw 87.2% vs market's 38.5% (48.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Jonoon -0.5: AI saw 62.2% vs market's 44.4% (17.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Over 2.25: AI saw 70.9% vs market's 53.5% (17.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 69.1% vs market's 52.4% (16.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, +$378.50 (ROI: +12.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 3W/5L, +$369.00 (ROI: +11.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 53–47 in Qingdao Jonoon's favor. Qingdao Jonoon had 13 shots (1 on target) versus Chongqing Tongliang Long's 5 (4 on target). Corners: 8-3.