Henan Jianye1 - 0Sichuan Jiuniu
Henan JianyeWhy did AI enter 2 times at 57', 77' — and still finish +$627?
Match Overview
Henan Jianye hosted Sichuan Jiuniu in the Super League, finishing 1-0. Goals: Bruno Nazario (67'). OddsFlow deployed 24 trades across 2 waves, achieving 38% precision with a net result of +$626.69 (ROI: +9.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.58 to 1.7.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Sichuan Jiuniu -0.5 and Under 1.25 and Under 1.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 30.1%, with a combined stake of $5097. The sharpest edge was on Sichuan Jiuniu -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 24.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** 6 of 21 trades won, netting $-2222.31. ### Wave 2 — Minute 77' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Henan Jianye leading 1-0 at 77'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sichuan Jiuniu -1. Average expected value was 62.9%, with a combined stake of $1628. The sharpest edge was on Sichuan Jiuniu -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 60.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2849.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Sichuan Jiuniu -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 36.4% (60.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Sichuan Jiuniu -1: AI saw 96.9% vs market's 36.4% (60.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Sichuan Jiuniu -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 36.4% (60.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap Sichuan Jiuniu -0.5: AI saw 76.1% vs market's 51.8% (24.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap Sichuan Jiuniu -0.5: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 51.8% (24.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1099.00 (ROI: +175.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 2W/6L/2V, $-60.44 (ROI: -2.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 2W/6L/2V, $-61.87 (ROI: -2.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-350.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62–38 in Henan Jianye's favor. Henan Jianye had 21 shots (5 on target) versus Sichuan Jiuniu's 6 (1 on target). Corners: 9-1.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +9.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1099.00.
A positive result with +9.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$626.69. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1099.00.
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