Henan Jianye0 - 2Hangzhou Greentown
Henan JianyeWhy did AI enter 7 times at 25', 35', 42', 45', 49', 69', 75' — and still finish +$4691?
Match Overview
Henan Jianye hosted Hangzhou Greentown in the Super League, finishing 0-2. Goals: A. Mitrita (31'), Tao Qianglong (90'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 7 waves, achieving 86% precision with a net result of +$4690.55 (ROI: +42.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hangzhou Greentown 0. Average expected value was 17.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Hangzhou Greentown 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.0% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 15.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$335.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Hangzhou Greentown leading 0-1 at 35'. null scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Henan Jianye +0.5 and Under 3.5 and Hangzhou Greentown and Under 3. Average expected value was 17.5%, with a combined stake of $5312. The sharpest edge was on Henan Jianye +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.2% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 26.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 6 of 9 trades won, netting $-723.45. ### Wave 3 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Hangzhou Greentown leading 0-1 at 42'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 7.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 45.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 5.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$750.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Hangzhou Greentown leading 0-1 at 45'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 49.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 5.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1250.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Hangzhou Greentown leading 0-1 at 49'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Hangzhou Greentown. Average expected value was 4.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$454.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 69' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Hangzhou Greentown leading 0-1 at 69'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$783.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 75' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Hangzhou Greentown leading 0-1 at 75'. Bruno Nazario scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Hangzhou Greentown 0 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 26.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Hangzhou Greentown 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.7% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 25.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1841.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Henan Jianye +0.5: AI saw 82.2% vs market's 55.6% (26.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Henan Jianye +0.5: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 55.6% (26.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Henan Jianye +0.5: AI saw 81.3% vs market's 55.6% (25.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Hangzhou Greentown 0: AI saw 76.7% vs market's 51.3% (25.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Hangzhou Greentown 0: AI saw 76.4% vs market's 51.3% (25.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$1385.50 (ROI: +40.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 6W/1L, +$1334.05 (ROI: +38.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$1219.50 (ROI: +35.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$751.50 (ROI: +107.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 64–36 in Henan Jianye's favor. Henan Jianye had 20 shots (6 on target) versus Hangzhou Greentown's 5 (3 on target). Corners: 7-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +42.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1385.50.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +42.6% ROI on 21 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1385.50.
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