Hangzhou Greentown

0 - 5

Shenyang Urban

Hangzhou Greentown hosted Shenyang Urban in the Super League, finishing 0-5. Goals: G. Mbenza (11'), G. Mbenza (27'), G. Mbenza (60'), Jeffinho (80'), Jeffinho (82'), Tian Yuda (90'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 6 waves, achieving 24% precision with a net result of $-5487.00 (ROI: -59.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 1.94; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hangzhou Greentown -0.75. Average expected value was 24.7%, with a combined stake of $48. The sharpest edge was on Hangzhou Greentown -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.3% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 14.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-48.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hangzhou Greentown -0.5. Average expected value was 13.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Hangzhou Greentown -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 9.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** Shenyang Urban leading 0-2 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hangzhou Greentown +0.5 and Hangzhou Greentown +1. Average expected value was 50.6%, with a combined stake of $3989. The sharpest edge was on Hangzhou Greentown +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.1% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 52.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-3989.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** Shenyang Urban leading 0-2 at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Shenyang Urban and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $2000. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** Shenyang Urban leading 0-2 at 50'. Shenyang Urban made 6 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Hangzhou Greentown -0.5 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 19.7%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Hangzhou Greentown -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.2% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 23.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** Shenyang Urban leading 0-2 at 57'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 8.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 56.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Hangzhou Greentown +0.5: AI saw 92.1% vs market's 40.0% (52.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Hangzhou Greentown +0.5: AI saw 91.8% vs market's 40.0% (51.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Hangzhou Greentown +1: AI saw 92.4% vs market's 48.2% (44.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Hangzhou Greentown +1: AI saw 91.9% vs market's 48.2% (43.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Hangzhou Greentown -0.5: AI saw 64.2% vs market's 41.2% (23.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-48.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-2616.00 (ROI: -58.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-2623.00 (ROI: -58.3%)

Possession was 61–39 in Hangzhou Greentown's favor. Hangzhou Greentown had 15 shots (4 on target) versus Shenyang Urban's 13 (8 on target). Corners: 9-0.