Hangzhou Greentown

4 - 1

Shandong Luneng

Hangzhou Greentown hosted Shandong Luneng in the Super League, finishing 4-1. Goals: R. Merkies (1'), Cheng Jin (60'), Gao Di (64'), M. Tolic (73'), Tao Qianglong (90'). OddsFlow deployed 27 trades across 8 waves, achieving 11% precision with a net result of $-6357.00 (ROI: -72.3%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.96 to 1.83; the home moneyline shortened from 3.22 to 2.92.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shandong Luneng +0.25. Average expected value was 19.6%, with a combined stake of $26. The sharpest edge was on Shandong Luneng +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 9.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-26.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Shandong Luneng leading 0-1 at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hangzhou Greentown +0.5. Average expected value was 10.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Hangzhou Greentown +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.9% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$230.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Shandong Luneng leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Shandong Luneng. Average expected value was 27.7%, with a combined stake of $1580. The sharpest edge was on Shandong Luneng (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 74.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 21.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-1580.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Shandong Luneng leading 0-1 at 47'. Shandong Luneng made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.75 and Under 3.5 and Hangzhou Greentown +0.5. Average expected value was 31.9%, with a combined stake of $2304. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 25.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting $-354.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Shandong Luneng leading 0-1 at 52'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 34.7%, with a combined stake of $1693. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 92.4% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 30.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1693.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Shandong Luneng leading 0-1 at 58'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shandong Luneng 0. Average expected value was 23.4%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Shandong Luneng 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.7% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 20.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 64' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Hangzhou Greentown leading 2-1 at 64'. Gao Di scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shandong Luneng 0. Average expected value was 49.0%, with a combined stake of $1120. The sharpest edge was on Shandong Luneng 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.8% probability versus the market's implied 52.9% — a 32.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.89. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1120.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 70' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Hangzhou Greentown leading 2-1 at 70'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5 and Under 4.75. Average expected value was 41.0%, with a combined stake of $864. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 76.9% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 28.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-814.00.

- **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Shandong Luneng 0: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 52.9% (32.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Shandong Luneng 0: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 52.9% (32.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 92.4% vs market's 61.9% (30.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 92.3% vs market's 61.9% (30.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Shandong Luneng 0: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 57.1% (28.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$230.00 (ROI: +115.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-26.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 0W/5L/1V, $-1934.00 (ROI: -97.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 1W/8L, $-2137.00 (ROI: -68.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 1W/8L, $-2490.00 (ROI: -71.9%)

Possession was 55–45 in Hangzhou Greentown's favor. Hangzhou Greentown had 23 shots (9 on target) versus Shandong Luneng's 8 (2 on target). Corners: 5-4.