Dalian Zhixing2 - 3Qingdao Youth Island
Dalian ZhixingWhy did AI enter 2 times at 19', 35' — and still finish +$615?
Match Overview
Dalian Zhixing hosted Qingdao Youth Island in the Super League, finishing 2-3. Goals: A. Yakubu (22' pen), N. Stanciu (52'), F. Acheampong (52'), Davidson (69'), F. Acheampong (90'), N. Da Luz (90' pen). Dalian Zhixing received a red card (, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 2 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$615.47 (ROI: +20.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 2.07; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.66 to 1.81.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 19' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 19'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Qingdao Youth Island +1. Average expected value was 15.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Youth Island +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.6% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 13.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Qingdao Youth Island leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Qingdao Youth Island and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 29.3%, with a combined stake of $2754. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Youth Island (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 76.8% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 26.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 6 of 8 trades won, netting +$615.47.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Qingdao Youth Island: AI saw 76.8% vs market's 50.0% (26.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Qingdao Youth Island: AI saw 76.8% vs market's 51.5% (25.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Qingdao Youth Island: AI saw 76.8% vs market's 52.4% (24.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Qingdao Youth Island: AI saw 66.4% vs market's 50.0% (16.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Qingdao Youth Island: AI saw 66.4% vs market's 51.5% (14.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$439.65 (ROI: +28.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$175.82 (ROI: +14.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 68–32 in Dalian Zhixing's favor. Dalian Zhixing had 25 shots (6 on target) versus Qingdao Youth Island's 10 (5 on target). Corners: 7-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +20.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$439.65.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +20.8% ROI on 9 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$439.65.
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