Dalian Zhixing

2 - 0

Chengdu Better City

Dalian Zhixing hosted Chengdu Better City in the Super League, finishing 2-0. Goals: C. Malele (77'), M. Traore (89'). OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 6 waves, achieving 9% precision with a net result of $-4860.63 (ROI: -61.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.82 to 2.02; the home moneyline shortened from 4.48 to 3.02.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chengdu Better City +0.25. Average expected value was 46.5%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Chengdu Better City +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 17.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Chengdu Better City 0 and Under 2.5 and Chengdu Better City and Under 1.75. Average expected value was 36.9%, with a combined stake of $4529. The sharpest edge was on Chengdu Better City 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 36.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 2 of 14 trades won, netting $-2600.63. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chengdu Better City 0. Average expected value was 60.7%, with a combined stake of $250. The sharpest edge was on Chengdu Better City 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.3% probability versus the market's implied 47.2% — a 38.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.12. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-250.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 55'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 61' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 61'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 8.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 48.0% probability versus the market's implied 41.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.4. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 78' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Dalian Zhixing leading 1-0 at 78'. C. Malele scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chengdu Better City -1. Average expected value was 46.9%, with a combined stake of $1095. The sharpest edge was on Chengdu Better City -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 44.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00.

- **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Chengdu Better City -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 52.6% (44.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Chengdu Better City -1: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 52.6% (44.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Chengdu Better City 0: AI saw 85.3% vs market's 47.2% (38.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Chengdu Better City 0: AI saw 85.3% vs market's 47.6% (37.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Chengdu Better City 0: AI saw 85.6% vs market's 48.8% (36.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-250.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 1W/6L/3V, $-2270.25 (ROI: -59.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 1W/6L/3V, $-2330.38 (ROI: -61.1%)

Possession was 37–63 in Dalian Zhixing's deficit. Dalian Zhixing had 12 shots (3 on target) versus Chengdu Better City's 5 (0 on target). Corners: 3-5.