Chongqing Tongliang Long0 - 0Yunnan Yukun
Chongqing Tongliang LongWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 23', 35', 45' — and still finish +$4123?
Match Overview
Chongqing Tongliang Long hosted Yunnan Yukun in the Super League, finishing 0-0. Goals: G. Cimpanu (44'). OddsFlow deployed 22 trades across 4 waves, achieving 55% precision with a net result of +$4122.70 (ROI: +75.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.55 to 3.06.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Yunnan Yukun +0.25. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-5.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 23' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 23'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Yunnan Yukun 0. Average expected value was 31.4%, with a combined stake of $350. The sharpest edge was on Yunnan Yukun 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.4% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 19.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Yunnan Yukun 0 and Draw and Under 2.5 and Under 1.75. Average expected value was 23.6%, with a combined stake of $3811. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 71.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 22.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** 7 of 13 trades won, netting +$3358.70. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Chongqing Tongliang Long leading 1-0 at 45'. G. Cimpanu scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 41.6%, with a combined stake of $1305. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 79.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.3% — a 29.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.99. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$769.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 50.3% (29.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 51.0% (29.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 51.0% (28.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.75: AI saw 71.3% vs market's 48.3% (22.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Yunnan Yukun 0: AI saw 72.8% vs market's 52.1% (20.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 7W/0L/3V, +$2085.73 (ROI: +80.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/0L/3V, +$2041.97 (ROI: +80.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/0L/3V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-5.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52–48 in Chongqing Tongliang Long's favor. Chongqing Tongliang Long had 7 shots (1 on target) versus Yunnan Yukun's 4 (1 on target). Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +75.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2085.73.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +75.3% ROI on 22 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2085.73.
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