Chongqing Tongliang Long

2 - 3

Beijing Guoan

Chongqing Tongliang Long hosted Beijing Guoan in the Super League, finishing 2-3. Goals: F. Abreu (34'), F. Abreu (37'), L. Dimata (53'), L. Dimata (55'), Lucao (68'), Lucao (69'), Serginho (82'), F. Abreu (85'), F. Abreu (87'). OddsFlow deployed 33 trades across 5 waves, achieving 55% precision with a net result of +$2095.05 (ROI: +16.6%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.63 to 4.69.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Beijing Guoan 0. Average expected value was 23.6%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Beijing Guoan 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.2% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 20.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$145.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Beijing Guoan and Chongqing Tongliang Long +1 and Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $4219. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.8% probability versus the market's implied 49.5% — a 21.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.02. **Result:** 5 of 12 trades won, netting +$1481.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Beijing Guoan leading 0-1 at 55'. L. Dimata scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Under 3 and Draw. Average expected value was 16.4%, with a combined stake of $1546. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 66.7% probability versus the market's implied 46.1% — a 20.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.17. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-1546.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after L. Dimata's equalizer at 55'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 7.7%, with a combined stake of $2000. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$283.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 69' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Chongqing Tongliang Long leading 2-1 at 69'. Lucao scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Chongqing Tongliang Long and Beijing Guoan -0.5 and Over 3.5 and Over 3.75. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $4635. The sharpest edge was on Beijing Guoan -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.4% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 44.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 9 of 12 trades won, netting +$1732.05.

- **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Beijing Guoan -0.5: AI saw 84.4% vs market's 40.0% (44.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Beijing Guoan -0.5: AI saw 84.4% vs market's 40.0% (44.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Beijing Guoan -0.5: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 40.0% (43.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 70.8% vs market's 49.5% (21.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 70.8% vs market's 49.8% (21.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 10 trades, 6W/4L, +$868.85 (ROI: +21.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 6W/3L, +$856.35 (ROI: +21.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 13 trades, 5W/7L/1V, +$224.85 (ROI: +5.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$145.00 (ROI: +72.5%)

Possession was 43–57 in Chongqing Tongliang Long's deficit. Chongqing Tongliang Long had 8 shots (4 on target) versus Beijing Guoan's 21 (11 on target). Corners: 4-8.