Chengdu Better City

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SHANGHAI SIPG

Chengdu Better City hosted SHANGHAI SIPG in the Super League, finishing 0-1. Goals: X. Li (70'). OddsFlow deployed 26 trades across 7 waves, achieving 23% precision with a net result of $-2964.76 (ROI: -38.5%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 1.93.

### Wave 1 — Minute 21' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 21'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chengdu Better City -0.5. Average expected value was 14.6%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Chengdu Better City -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 11.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Chengdu Better City. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $1834. The sharpest edge was on Chengdu Better City (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 64.0% probability versus the market's implied 56.5% — a 7.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.77. **Result:** All 9 trades lost, netting $-1834.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chengdu Better City -0.5. Average expected value was 10.2%, with a combined stake of $1143. The sharpest edge was on Chengdu Better City -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.0% probability versus the market's implied 54.6% — a 7.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.83. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-1143.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Chengdu Better City -0.5 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 57.8% probability versus the market's implied 49.5% — a 8.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.02. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$1020.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 58'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 66'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** SHANGHAI SIPG leading 0-1 at 70'. X. Li scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting SHANGHAI SIPG. Average expected value was 10.8%, with a combined stake of $1018. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$692.24.

- **Minute 21'** — Asian Handicap Chengdu Better City -0.5: AI saw 69.9% vs market's 58.8% (11.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 2W/7L, $-795.00 (ROI: -30.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 3W/7L, $-840.76 (ROI: -30.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/5L, $-1129.00 (ROI: -52.9%)

Possession was 55–45 in Chengdu Better City's favor. Chengdu Better City had 13 shots (5 on target) versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 3 (1 on target). Corners: 5-2.