Chengdu Better City1 - 0Shandong Luneng
Chengdu Better CityWhy did AI enter 3 times at 35', 49', 71' — and still finish +$3632?
Match Overview
Chengdu Better City hosted Shandong Luneng in the Super League, finishing 1-0. Goals: Matheus Jussa (14'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 3 waves, achieving 83% precision with a net result of +$3631.90 (ROI: +80.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Chengdu Better City leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shandong Luneng -1. Average expected value was 45.0%, with a combined stake of $1578. The sharpest edge was on Shandong Luneng -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.6% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 42.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2248.65. ### Wave 2 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Chengdu Better City leading 1-0 at 49'. Shandong Luneng made 3 substitutions. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Shandong Luneng -1.5. Average expected value was 34.5%, with a combined stake of $2430. The sharpest edge was on Shandong Luneng -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.0% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 31.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1883.25. ### Wave 3 — Minute 71' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Chengdu Better City leading 1-0 at 71'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 11.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Shandong Luneng -1: AI saw 83.6% vs market's 41.2% (42.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Shandong Luneng -1: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 41.2% (42.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Shandong Luneng -1.5: AI saw 88.0% vs market's 56.3% (31.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Shandong Luneng -1.5: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 56.3% (31.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Shandong Luneng -1.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 56.3% (31.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1990.12 (ROI: +104.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$1486.77 (ROI: +61.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$155.00 (ROI: +77.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46–54 in Chengdu Better City's deficit. Chengdu Better City had 16 shots (7 on target) versus Shandong Luneng's 14 (0 on target). Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +80.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1990.12.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +80.6% ROI on 6 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1990.12.
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