Beijing Guoan4 - 2Qingdao Jonoon
Beijing GuoanWhat went wrong? 3 trades, $-160 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Beijing Guoan hosted Qingdao Jonoon in the Super League, finishing 4-2. Goals: Zhang Yuning (12'), Yue Tze-Nam (24'), Zhang Xizhe (36' pen), Zhang Xizhe (37' pen), Cao Yongjing (65'), Song Wenjie (67'), Ngan Cheuk-Pan (90'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-160.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.25 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 1.85; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Qingdao Jonoon -1.25. Average expected value was 35.1%, with a combined stake of $160. The sharpest edge was on Qingdao Jonoon -1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 19.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-160.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Jonoon -1.25: AI saw 68.3% vs market's 48.8% (19.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Jonoon -1.25: AI saw 68.3% vs market's 50.8% (17.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Qingdao Jonoon -1.25: AI saw 68.3% vs market's 52.4% (16.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-160.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 66–34 in Beijing Guoan's favor. Beijing Guoan had 22 shots (7 on target) versus Qingdao Jonoon's 9 (4 on target). Corners: 1-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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