Beijing Guoan

1 - 2

Henan Jianye

Beijing Guoan hosted Henan Jianye in the Super League, finishing 1-2. Goals: Dawhan (27'), Dawhan (28'), Zhang Xizhe (65'), Zhang Xizhe (66'), F. Abreu (78' OG), F. Abreu (79' OG), Gustavo (87'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 3 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of +$2370.97 (ROI: +62.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Beijing Guoan -0.75. Average expected value was 23.8%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Beijing Guoan -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.8% probability versus the market's implied 53.2% — a 12.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.88. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 52' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Beijing Guoan leading 1-0 at 52'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Henan Jianye -1. Average expected value was 51.8%, with a combined stake of $2317. The sharpest edge was on Henan Jianye -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.2% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 49.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$3880.97. ### Wave 3 — Minute 78' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Beijing Guoan leading 1-0 at 78'. F. Abreu scored moments ago. Beijing Guoan made 3 substitutions. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 14.1%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00.

- **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Henan Jianye -1: AI saw 87.2% vs market's 37.4% (49.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Henan Jianye -1: AI saw 87.1% vs market's 37.4% (49.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Henan Jianye -1: AI saw 86.5% vs market's 37.4% (49.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Beijing Guoan -0.75: AI saw 65.8% vs market's 53.2% (12.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1283.05 (ROI: +167.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$799.80 (ROI: +62.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$798.12 (ROI: +62.6%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 64–36 in Beijing Guoan's favor. Beijing Guoan had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Henan Jianye's 9 (3 on target). Corners: 4-4.