Universitatea Craiova vs Levski Sofia
2 - 2
Universitatea CraiovaWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 50.0% / 29.4% / 27.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 50.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 45.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of Over 2.5 goals.
The UEFA Champions League fixture between Universitatea Craiova and Levski Sofia concluded in an unexpected 2-2 draw, resulting in a total of 4 goals. The 1x2 market, with Universitatea Craiova as a 50% implied favorite, failed to account for the eventual parity. On the handicap line of -0.5 for the home team, the market correctly identified Levski Sofia +0.5 as having a slight edge (55.56% implied probability to cover), which was proven true by the draw. However, the most striking **market inefficiency** was observed in the Totals market. Despite 4 goals being scored, the closing line had **Under 2.5 goals** as a strong favorite with an implied probability of 60.61%, severely **underestimating the Over 2.5** (45.45% implied probability). This represents a clear **Value Signal** for Over bettors.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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